The resurgence of Pakistan's militants

Wednesday, June 09, 2010

In the spring of 2009 some 5,000 pro-Taliban militants advanced to within just 60 miles of the Pakistani capital Islamabad after taking control of a vast swathe of Pakistan's North West Frontier Province. Over a million people fled their homes and it required a major Pakistani Army offensive to secure the city of Mingora in the Swat Valley. The Pakistani security forces committed around 15,000 men to a three month long operation and by mid-2009 the Pakistani government claimed victory having killed over 1,000 militants. Worryingly by this stage the army were saying no matter how many insurgents they killed they could not win. Also, despite the Pakistani Army's best efforts, violence continued in the Swat.

Following this government offensive, Taliban leader Baitullah Mehsud was reportedly killed in a CIA missile strike in early August 2009 in South Waziristan. He had declared himself 'Ameer Sahib' of the Pakistani Taliban in 2007 gathering various factions together to make northwest Pakistan a stronghold of both the Taliban and al-Qaida. Commanding up to 20,000 followers his stated mission was to destroy the Pakistani state for its 'collaboration' with the West.

Retribution for Mehsud's death was swift. In just ten days during early October his successor and former deputy Hakimullah Mehsud dispelled any illusions that the militants were in retreat. Hakimullah also alarmed neighbouring India when he summed up his objectives as: "First stop, an Islamic state in Pakistan, second stop, attacks in India". It was hoped that Baitullah's death would undermine the Pakistani Taliban's links with such groups as Jaish-e-Mohammed and Lashkar-e-Tayyiba, but this failed to happen,

A major three-pronged government offensive was launched into South Waziristan targeting the Taliban towns of Ladha and Makeen. The Taliban and foreign fighters including Arabs and Uzbeks either retreated into the surrounding mountains or neighbouring Orakzai (one of Hakimullah's strongholds along with the tribal regions of Khyber and Kurram).

The chaos continued. Audaciously Taliban fighters stormed the Pakistani Army's headquarters in Rawalpindi in early November 2009, while commando style attacks were also conducted in Islamabad, Peshawar and Lahore. Half of the attackers in Rawalpindi were Punjabi militants from the group Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami, showing an increasing level of cooperation amongst Pakistan's various militant factions. The message was clear; the Taliban were very much alive and kicking. Throughout the winter the Pakistani government braced itself for the inevitable renewal of attacks by the resurgent Taliban during this spring necessitating yet more military operations.

Pakistan remains plagued by two types of terrorism, firstly sectarian violence between Shia and Sunni Muslims. The main groups are the Shia Tehrik-e-Jaffria Pakistan and the breakaway faction Sipah-e-Mohamma (Army of Mohammad) pitted against the Sunni or Deobandi Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan (Army of the Companions of the Prophet, Pakistan) and Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (Army of God). Secondly are the Jihadist groups used by the Pakistani Government prior to 9/11 as strategic weapons in the struggles in Afghanistan and Kashmir, which are far more numerous. Worryingly for the authorities the distinction between the sectarian and Jihadist groups has become increasingly blurred in recent years.

Both Pakistan and India have long endured indigenous terrorist problems stemming from their volatile dispute over divided Kashmir. The Harakat ul-Mujahidin (HUM) is a Pakistan based Islamic militant group that seeks to end Indian control of the Muslim inhabited parts of Kashmir. It is believed to comprise of militant Islamist Pakistanis, Kashmiris and Arab veterans of the Afghan War against the Soviets. Other groups include the HUM splinter faction Jaish-e-Mohammed (JEM - Army of Mohammed) and Lashkar-e-Tayyiba (LeT - Army of the Righteous). HUM and JEM are believed to be aligned with al-Qaida. Under pressure from Washington Pakistan, publicly at least, banned these organisations and froze their assets. LeT is believed to have been involved in the 2001 attack on New Delhi's Parliament, the 2006 Mumbai train bombings, and the 2007 blast on a train running between India and Pakistan. And the 2008 Mumbai city attacks.

The legacy of the long wars in Afghanistan has clearly aggravated the destabilisation of Pakistan. The Pakistani Taliban or Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (Student Movement of Pakistan - TTP) allies of the Afghan Taliban and al-Qaida, seek to turn northern Pakistan into an Islamic state. Last year they successfully took control not only of the Swat valley, but also Lower Dir, Shangla and Buner, and established a strong presence in many of the North West Frontier Province's (NWFP's) other districts. In addition the Taliban secured control of North and South Waziristan.

Maulvi Faqir Mohammad, commander of the Taliban in Bajaur, controls almost 10,000 fighters. A year-long military operation ended in Bajaur in early in 2009, but a peace agreement collapsed and the Taliban were soon in control of most areas outside the regional capital, Khar, once more. Bajaur is one of the Pakistani tribal areas where the Taliban established themselves after they were ousted from Afghanistan. Senior Afghan Taliban leaders are also based in Baluchistan (thereby threatening Quetta) and Sindh provinces from where they provide logistics for the Taliban's war against US and Nato forces in Afghanistan.

The clampdown in Baluchistan, triggered following an attempt on former President Musharraf's life, resulted in hundreds of deaths and thousands of arrests. Reportedly some six Pakistani Army Brigades, plus paramilitary forces numbering some 25,000 men are struggling to contain the Baluchistan Liberation Army, consisting of the Bugti clan and other assorted tribals, in the Kohlu Mountains. Allegedly weapons are being smuggled into Baluchistan from Afghanistan to feed the insurgency.

A number of years ago al-Qaida and the Taliban switched from using Baluchistan as a logistical hub to an operational base. To complicate matters, northwest Baluchistan's border city of Chaman is a stronghold for the Laskar-i-Jhangvi, a Pakistani Sunni group that has attacked Pakistani Shias. Rightly or wrongly the Pakistani military tried to shift the foreign fighters from the Pashtun majority areas of Baluchistan, to the Waziristan areas of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA,) to join the existing remnants of al-Qaida, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, the Jundullah (Army of Allah) and elements the International Islamic Front.

Acting on intelligence the Pakistani Army struck a training camp for foreign fighters, which included a sizeable ammunition dump on 1 March 2006, attacking Islamic militants at Saidgai some 15km north of Miran Shah in North Waziristan. Cobra helicopter gunships blasted a small compound consisting before the ground forces moved in for the kill. During the heavy fighting 45 militants were killed. The helicopters also reportedly fired on vehicles trying to break out of the area, killing a Chechen rebel leader.

This operation came in the wake of Afghanistan's accusations that the Pakistani government was not doing enough to control the lawless border and that ousted Taliban and al-Qaida forces were using Pakistani soil as a base from which to launch attacks. Ironically Pakistani forces operating near the border in Bajaur have since claimed that the US/Afghan Task Force Mountain Warrior was not doing enough to help. During this bitter fighting in the frontier provinces the Pakistani military has suffered more than it would like to admit. To this day security operations continue with mixed results.

Anthony Tucker-Jones is author of the recently published 'The Rise of Militant Islam.'