Is the Russian Navy now in the weapons delivery business?

22 June 2012

Anthony Tucker-Jones reports on how Russian duplicity over arms deliveries to Syria appears to know no end

It seems Russian mendacity knows no limits. Firstly they lie about weapons deliveries to Syria, now they lie about the need for President Bashir al-Assad to step down.

Beyond all reason Russia seems hell bent on clinging to Assad's regime come what may. At the G20 summit in Los Cabos, Mexico, Russian President Vladimir Putin gave British Prime Minister David Cameron the impression that he finally recognised the need for a transition of power in Syria. Not so, says Moscow.

The reality is that Moscow has no intention of giving up its only naval base outside the Russian Federation. Assad is not to go the way of Gaddafi

The suspicion is that Putin deliberately wrong-footed Cameron as revenge for the UK and US embarrassing Russia over its arms shipments to Syria using the Russian cargo line Femco. Good old-fashioned intelligence monitored the Merchant Vessel Alaed leaving St Petersburg on 8 June, it then made its way to Kallingrad, Russia's Cold War enclave between Poland and Lithuania. There it picked up refurbished Syrian Mi-25 helicopter gunships.

Russia's self-righteous claims that it wasn't sending attack helicopters to Syria following allegations made by the US secretary of State now have a seriously hollow ring. When is a helicopter delivery not a helicopter delivery?

Following a tip-off, and once in Dutch waters, the MV Alaed was hailed by the maritime authorities; for some bizarre reason it then changed course and headed for Scotland.

The maritime insurer Standard Club was informed that the ship was carrying attack helicopters, ammunition and missiles. This placed it in breach of EU sanctions against Assad's regime so it revoked the ship's cover. Once uninsured the vessel could not dock or refuel in the UK and had no choice but to head to the waters of the Arctic Circle and the Russian port of Murmansk.

Russia is now so at odds with the international community that it is sending the amphibious assault ships the Nikolai Filchenkov and the Caesar Kunikov to the Syrian port of Tartus. These, Moscow says, are deploying to protect Russian citizens and the country's naval interests in Tartus, as well as evacuating any equipment.

The cynical might argue that as the MV Alaed failed to get through the Russian Navy has now got into the weapons delivery business. The Nikolai Filchenkov can carry up to 1,500 tonnes of cargo and equipment. These ships have been loading at the Crimean naval base of Sebastopol, they will be closely monitored on their departure and once they are in the Mediterranean.

Without the benefit of satellite imagery, who is to know what any shipping containers unloaded at Tartus may hold – especially if they are removed from the port immediately?

As well as helicopters and trainer aircraft Russia is determined to deliver up to 50 Pantsir-S1 (SA-22) air defence systems, part of a massive package worth $1bn. Rumour has it that Iran sponsored part of the deal and will get 10 units for its trouble. Both Moscow and Tehran deny this.

In return Iran has supplied Syria with C-801/C-802 anti-shipping missiles, which were delivered last year.

Also while Syria has some 19 operational MiG-29s – it is awaiting the delivery of another 24 MiG-29M/M2 ordered in 2007 as well as eight Buk-M2E air defence systems. The status of an order for eight MiG-31 remains unknown, though is believed to be on hold.

With the hamstrung UN Observer mission in Syria due to end on 20 July one can only wonder if Russia's insistence on continuing to deliver air defence systems might be designed to deter the implementation of a no-fly zone over Syria. One thing is clear: should Assad fall, Russians will no longer be welcome in Syria.