Special report: Assad's chemical and biological weapons

30 July 2012

Following Syria's threats to deploy Chemical and Biological Weapons, defence analyst Anthony Tucker-Jones assesses President Assad's deadly arsenal

Syria has long been suspected of possessing Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) with reports suggesting the country has the largest chemical and biological weapons arsenal in the Arab world.

Its failure to sign either the Chemical or Biological Weapons conventions indicated guilt, but the Syrian Foreign Ministry's recent threat to use them against external aggressors is a clear confession.

It has been alleged that the Syrian Army used chemical weapons during the siege of Baba Amr, in the city of Homs last year. Civilian casualties complained of memory loss, nerve damage, muscle pain and hair loss. Rebels have captured chemical protection kit from the Syrian Army.

US intelligence reports saying the Syrian military was moving chemical and biological weapons (CBW) stocks to safeguard them from falling into the hands of the Free Syria Army (FSA), led Israel to warn it would take pre-emptive action to stop groups like Hezbollah or al-Qaida getting hold of such weapons.

Washington has also reportedly conducted talks with Amman about Jordanian Special Forces securing Syria's biological and chemical weapons facilities should they come under threat.

Security at the Homs chemical weapons production facility and the Khan Abu Shamat storage depot have been an ongoing cause for concern. Likewise, Scud missiles at Al Safir could launch a surprise chemical attack on Israel.

"All these types of weapons are in storage and under the direct supervision of the Syrian armed forces and will never be used unless Syria is exposed to external aggression," warned Jihad Makdissi, a Syrian Foreign Ministry spokesman in response to Israel's statement. He also clarified that they would not be used against the Syrian people, but few remain convinced as President Bashar al-Assad's beleaguered regime struggles to pacify the rebellion.

It could be argued, however, that the Syrian government's words have been misrepresented. Syria's WMD are intended to give it strategic parity with Israel's nuclear weapons – they are designed to deter Israel ever resorting to such measures. Ergo they are intended to stop foreign intervention, not necessarily or explicitly UN or NATO forces.

Chemical Warfare
Assad's considerable WMD arsenal includes chemical weapons such as blister agent mustard gas and nerve agents Sarin, Tabun and VX produced in facilities at Cerin, Hama, Homs, Latakia and Palmyra.

Mustard gas is harmful as both a liquid and a vapour. It destroys skin tissue, attacks the eyes, respiratory tract and moist areas of the body and the horrific blistering of the skin it causes can resemble first-degree burns. Iraq used it during the Iran-Iraq war to some effect.

The G and V-series nerve agents, derived from phosphorous, are all viscous liquids, deadly to man and wildlife as they fatally block then paralyse respiratory and voluntary muscular action.

Most notably, Iraq used Tabun (GA), which is colourless to brown giving off an almond-like smell, against Iran during the 1980s. Sarin, known as GB, is a phosphoryl fluoride that is more toxic and volatile than Tabun. Depending on its purity it is anything from colourless to black. Both were first produced by Germany during World War II.

The V-series agents were discovered by the British chemical industry in the 1950s while researching organophosphorus insecticides. Syria's VX formula is likely to be based on the Russian 'Vx', which is a colourless liquid with no obvious smell. It is much more effective through contact with the skin than by vapour absorption.

Russian Vx is believed to be 10 times more volatile than American produced VX.

Bio-Warfare
Syria has also long been suspected of having a Biological weapons programme – there are at least 20 agents that Damascus could have weaponised, primarily bacterial and virus-based.

Syria's biological weapon of choice is believed to be Anthrax. However, work has also been conducted on aflotoxin, botulinium, camelpox, cholera, plague, ricin, smallpox and tularaemia. In the past Syria's bio-warfare programme has been described as 'very advanced'.

The mortality rate for untreated pulmonary Anthrax is almost 100 per cent, while viral haemorrhagic fevers such as Ebola have a fatality rate of 50 to 90 per cent. Likewise mortality for cholera can be as high as 50 per cent.

Botulinium toxin A is one of the most poisonous substances known to man and is a thousand times more toxic than VX – but is really only effective in sabotaging water or food supplies.

Assad could lash out
The Syrian military could deliver its CBW arsenal by aircraft, artillery or Scud and SS-21 ballistic missiles as well as naval cruise and coastal defence missiles.

Reportedly a Syrian chemical weapons plant suffered an accident in 2007 which caused 15 fatalities and left 50 injured. This happened during tests to weaponise a Scud missile with mustard gas. Among the injured were Iranian missile technicians.

As a last desperate measure Assad could now order the use of chemical weapons to terrorise the Free Syrian Army or even strike Israel to distract attention abroad.

Certainly Israel fears that President Assad's regime could lash out in an attempt to widen the conflict.

In the meantime intelligence analysts are keeping a close watch on the movements of the Syrian Army's BRDM-2RKh armoured cars, which offer protection from chemical weapons. Their presence on the battlefield could signal an imminent chemical attack.