Syria intervention 'increasingly likely'

25 July 2012

External intervention in the ongoing conflict in Syria is now "significantly more likely", according to a report by a defence thinktank.

The Royal United Services Institute's (RUSI's) Syria Crisis Briefing argues that following the assassination of senior Assad regime officials on 18 July the conflict had developed from an anti-government rebellion into a sectarian civil war.

RUSI director general Professor Michael Clarke said that "external intervention, in some form, is now significantly more likely" as a result of the assassinations.

The intervention, however, may involve operations to stabilise neighbouring countries such as Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey, Israel and Iraq, which are seeing an influx of tens of thousands of refugees daily. Syria has said it is prepared to use its chemical weapon stockpiles against foreign militaries entering the country.

"The possibility of Syria's chemical weapon stocks being moved around, or out of the country, being stolen or still more being used in any conflict, increases the sense of imminent international conflict that is gripping the region," wrote Clarke. "Israel has hinted at action in the event of chemical weapons falling into Hizbullah hands."

"Already, it is believed that western intelligence and special force operations are actively underway to obtain as much relevant information as possible on the ground, and cyber operations are a key determinant in negating the relatively sophisticated air defence and military command structure that Syria possesses."

In the same analysis paper, Colonel (ret'd) Richard Kemp wrote that Russian arms shipments to the Assad regime, including the controversial delivery of attack helicopters earlier this month, meant that "external intervention has been under way in Syria for months".

"At the same time Saudi Arabia and Qatar, with US and Turkish facilitation, have been arming and funding the opposition; and this covert support has been substantially responsible for the progress opposition forces have made in recent weeks," he wrote.

"Western political leaders may have no appetite for deeper intervention. But as history has shown, we do not always choose which wars to fight - sometimes wars choose us."

The Foreign Office has insisted it is seeking a peaceful resolution to the Syria conflict.