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Scotland could afford 'regional defence force'
17 October 2012An independent Scotland would be able to afford "modest, regional defence forces" while spending just 1.3 per cent of its post-independence GDP on defence, according to a new report published by the Royal United Services Institute.
The report, "A' the Blue Bonnets", suggests that spending of £1.8bn would secure a limited Scottish Defence Force (SDF), but warned that there were still "significant areas of uncertainty".
While the independence debate to date has been dominated by Trident, the report focused on the likely challenges of building up conventional defence capabilities should Scots vote for independence in 2014.
The estimated cost of an SDF is £1.5bn lower than Scotland's current financial contribution to UK defence, but the country would have no nuclear deterrent or attack submarines, no major warships, and no Tornado or Typhoon jets.
The report's authors, defence consultant and former army officer Stuart Crawford and economist Richard Marsh, began by defining the defence needs of an independent Scotland and then devised a force structure to achieve them.
They suggest that Scotland would be able to afford an army of between 10,000 and 12,500 troops, as well as 75 Special Forces personnel for a cost of around £820m a year.
It would also be able to create a 2,000-man air force based around Hawk jets and C-130 transporters consisting of around 60 aircraft and six operational squadrons. The Scottish air defence force may also field Chinook and Sea King helicopters from Lossiemouth or a revived Leuchars at a total estimated cost of £370m a year
A Scottish Navy would be able to have between 1,500 and 2,000 personnel and a surface fleet of 20-25 ships, including Type 23 frigates costing £650m a year. The Navy could be based in Faslane and a "reinstated Rosyth" and would not have any submarines, the report said.
Despite the low cost of the forces mentioned, other issues such as the spending requirements of NATO membership, higher purchase costs for small orders of equipment and difficulties recruiting and training personnel may have a significant impact on the plans, the authors wrote.
The SDF plans also faced uncertainties over intelligence sharing and cyber skills, which are likely to have to be negotiated with the remainder of the UK
"In recent history, Scotland has provided more than its share of manpower (and womanpower) to all three British armed forces - roughly 13 per cent of the regular army, possibly 14 per cent of the RAF, and 10 per cent of the Royal Navy," Crawford and Marsh wrote.
"…Scotland can have its SDF if it chooses to do so, although the embryonic Scottish military establishment would no doubt have to fight its corner energetically for a proper share of government funding against all the other demands of national administration. Nevertheless, it can be done, of that there is no doubt.
"Scottish defence forces would be relatively modest and probably have a regional, rather than global, focus; that they would not be equipped with expensive and state-of-the-art hardware across the board; and that they would be predominantly used for domestic defence duties with the capability to contribute to coalition and alliance operations under the aegis of whatever organisations Scotland became a member of."
HAVE YOUR SAY
17 October 2012
New Zealand spends about that amount and a quick look at what they get for their money leads me to believe that these suggestions are complete fantasy.
Chris - London
17 October 2012
Seems to me that these people are getting confused between fullstops and decimal points.
If the scots can buy all this for 1.5 bln then the rest of us have been done !!.
Shaun,Army. - South Devon
17 October 2012
This is fantasy land: the C-130s are shagged and it assumes that the UK govenment will hand over perfectly good assets to a non-Nato, non EU country
Ian Skinner - Enfield
17 October 2012
What have they been smoking?
Where are these 20-25 ships coming from?
Why would they need C-130's and Chinooks?
And why on earth for a domestic defence force would they need 75 special forces personnel?
What do the authors think an independent Scotland will be doing with these forces?
Get a grip - an independent Scotland wouldn't be able to afford these dreams any more than they will still be able to provide free prescriptions.
JC - UK
18 October 2012
NZ does not have an air force interceptor or strike component (I could go on but I won't). WrT Scotland, how would they respond to Russian incursions in their airspace? Hawk jets make great lead-in fighters, but as an interceptor they are not adequate in any respect. I would laugh though if any new Scottish Air Force could operate MPA's also before the RAF / RN does …(I will place a bet today on the way home).
Where exactly are these Type 23's supposed to come from? I would surmise perhaps post the Type 26 entering service with the Royal Navy decommissioned units could be sold to the Scottish Navy for £100m each (the RN has to recoup the losses incurred by stripping Faslane and Rosyth)…
The army sounds about right in the total, though Special Forces numbers should be reassessed in this age.
Shaun - Ex_RNZN
18 October 2012
If 2000 naval personnel can support a 20-25 vessel fleet for £650m/year, how come RN has more men, less ships and a bigger bill. Subs don't cost that much!
This looks like a Fantasy Forces game! Either that or they need to put fresh batteries in their calculators....
AW Employee - Yeovil
18 October 2012
60 aircrafts?
25 ships?
I suggest RUSI explains which kind of aircraft and which kind of ship, because i'm guessing the "20 ships" would include 1 frigate at most, and a number of OPVs.
And still i don't think they'd reach 20, either.
I don't think the math in this plan is correct.
Gabriele - Piacenza, Italy
18 October 2012
'Bunkum' Though marginally greater in population than the Republic of Ireland or New Zealand, it would seem fanciful in the extreme to suppose an independent Scotland could aspire to anything like this level of equipment!!
One shudders to think what the RUSI 'Think Tank' costs and is it good value?? Based on this report it makes you wonder!
Hereman - Wirral, England
18 October 2012
I fail to understand the need for a Scottish 'regional' defence force. Who in our immediate region would be in a realistic position to threaten them? The English, perhaps? Iceland? Probably not I think... and 20 ships of the line to protect their waters seems rather excessive... surely it would be better to spend the money on a small, well trained and adaptable army and helicopter force capable of implementing distaster relief and coast guard duties?
R. Hearn-Smith - Berkshire
19 October 2012
R. Hearn-Smith
Well said
JC - UK
19 October 2012
Well, Northern Ireland at present is part of the UK and so policing and garrisoning it is the responsibility of Scotland as well as England (and Ulster itself of course). If Scotland goes independent, should England go it alone in providing cover (and attracting terrorists), or should there be a bi-national treaty between E&W and Scotland to contribute 'defence' assets -can Scotland renege on their responsibility as part of the former UK?
AlMiles - Bristol, UK
25 October 2012
Thankyou JC UK
R. Hearn-Smith - Berkshire