Trident could empty the MoD's wallet

Thursday, March 19, 2009

Britain's Vanguard replacement programme faces a strict timeline for completion or else the country could be left without a nuclear deterrent for some years according to a new report by the Public Accounts Committee.

In a report on the future of Britain's deterrent, MPs found that the 2024 out of service date for the current Vanguards put the replacement programme on an "extremely tight" deadline. Given the MoD's record on delivering projects on time and at cost, the outlook for the Vanguard replacement is not good, MPs argued.

With the out of service date for the Vanguards set at 2024, despite some scientists arguing that they could last until 2034, all of the replacements will have to be in service by then. If they are not, there will be a gap in the deterrent.

The tight time frame will force Britain to conduct the design and construction simultaneously. Past defence projects including the JSF have proven that this concept can be disastrous and add hundreds of millions of dollars/pounds to the total because any mistake in the design must than be physically corrected on the product.

Mistakes can add months, if not years to the length of the programme.

Britain is heavily dependent on the US for its nuclear deterrent. However since the UK is replacing its submarines first, conflicts could arise with the US over the design of certain components and the Trident missiles. In the future, US spare parts may not be compatible with British submarines

US officials have assured Britain that the new Tridents will be able to fit in the Vanguard replacement. Since the replacement for the D5 missiles is not due until 2042, this guarantee may not last.

The programme will be extremely susceptible to cost increases and low value for money as well. Currently costs are projected to be around £20bn. MoD officials have yet to detail accurate cost estimates measured against progress, or have they projected the future costs of materials for the nuclear submarines.

With the market for nuclear submarine products being very limited, value for money will be hard to achieve. BAE and its partners will be able to hold a virtual monopoly over the MoD in terms of the costs of parts and labour.

"The department's timetable for completing the design and build process is extremely tight," said its chairman, Conservative MP Edward Leigh in summarising the report.

"The MoD's track record in delivering major defence projects on time is not exemplary," he added.

But the MoD maintained that they were confident that the submarines would be delivered on time and that the ability to maintain control of the programme was not in doubt.